The long-awaited Pebble Watches are arriving soon! They have been trickling out since January 23, and if you are one of the 85,000 kickstarter backers of the Pebble Watch, then like me, you are obsessively checking your email for a shipment notification.
They have said that the watches will be shipping out in order of backing on Kickstarter for the most part. Â Black ones will be shipping out faster, but you can still come up with a pretty good idea of where you are in line, with a bit of digging.
How Early Did You Pledge?
First, you’ll need to know exactly when you backed the project. Check your back emails for an email with the subject line:
 Thanks for becoming a backer of Pebble: E-Paper Watch for iPhone and Android by Pebble Technology.
It would be somewhere between April 12 and May 18, 2012.
You’ll also need to know how many watches per day were sold. Kicktraq offers some great statistics on activity for Kickstarter Projects. Take a look at their stats from the Pebble project to figure out how many backers are ahead of you.
Unfortunately, they only list the Pledges Per Day (dollars), and the number of Backers, not the number of watches, so to do this, you’ll need to do some crude math. If you add up the amount of pledges and the number of watches, the average watch is $115. Â The color ones were more expensive, the early-birds and bulk orders were a bit cheaper, but it averages out.
Using that number, and the stats from Kicktraq, you can calculate your “number in line”.
| Apr 12 | 0 – 8,664 |
| Apr 13 | 8,665 – 14,804 |
| Apr 14 | 14,805 – 18,173 |
| Apr 15 | 18,174 – 20,749 |
| Apr 16 | 20,750 – 24,053 |
| Apr 17 | 24,054 – 30,124 |
| Apr 18 | 30,125 – 37,138 |
| Apr 19 | 37,139 – 41,776 |
| Apr 20 | 41,777 – 44,461 |
| Apr 21 | 44,462 – 45,971 |
| Apr 22 | 45,972 – 47,540 |
| Apr 23 | 47,541 – 49,530 |
| Apr 24 | 49,531 – 51,013 |
| Apr 25 | 51,014 – 52,236 |
| Apr 26 | 52,237 – 53,579 |
| Apr 27 | 53,580 – 54,636 |
| Apr 28 | 54,637 – 55,585 |
| Apr 29 | 55,586 – 56,598 |
| Apr 30 | 56,599 – 59,885 |
| May 1 | 59,886 – 63,310 |
| May 2 | 63,311 – 65,770 |
| May 3 | 65,771 – 68,028 |
| May 4 | 68,029 – 69,627 |
| May 5 | 69,628 – 70,562 |
| May 6 | 70,563 – 71,790 |
| May 7 | 71,791 – 73,207 |
| May 8 | 73,208 – 78,788 |
| May 9 | 78,789 – 83,437 |
| May 10 | 83,438 – 83,521 |
| May 11 | 83,522 – 83,566 |
| May 12 | 83,567 – 83,581 |
| May 13 | 83,582 – 83,615 |
| May 14 | 83,616 – 83,650 |
| May 15 | 83,651 – 83,663 |
| May 16 | 83,664 – 83,685 |
| May 17 | 83,686 – 83,919 |
| May 18 | 83,920 – 84,361 |
You can take it a step further, and estimate that if you backed early in the morning, you’ll be closer to the beginning of the range and if you backed in the evening, you’ll be closer to the end of the range.
So When Do I Get My Watch?
So, what does that mean? Well, at a basic level, you should have a general idea of where you are.  To get a better feel for when you’ll actually see this thing on your wrist, follow the Pebble Updates to see how they’re progressing. They also have a great status site to show how many units have actually shipped so far, and they have said that they’re working towards a goal of shipping about 15k units per week.
Keep in mind, these are all wild estimates. You’ll get your watch when you get it. 🙂
In the meantime, keep checking your email! Â I know I am!
It is hard to tell if this means we will be seeing Pebble watches on our friends’ wrists by Valentine’s Day, but the FCC approval should certainly help get the product out into the real world sooner.
You can also check on the date pledged by going into your Kickstarter account ‘My Backer History.’
@Tom: Absolutely. I went to the email because that shows me the time as well as the date to really narrow it down, but yeah, if you don’t have the email, the Backer History section is a great option.
Thanks!